Most banks and analysts frame the possibility of even higher oil prices or a forced closure of the strait as a small risk, for now. Citigroup, for instance, put the chance of a $120 barrel of oil at only 20% in a Monday note. Analysts have also noted the logistical difficulties Iran would face in ordering and maintaining a closure of the strait, including U.S. naval superiority in the region and the risks the regime would run of losing allies by cutting off energy supply. The threat of closure also isn’t new for the Islamic Republic, which has threatened to close the strait multiple times in the past, but never fully followed through.
there are \frac{n(n-1)}{2} factors in total.
問題在於，執法力度正在加強。美國財政部2025年10月對Rosneft和Lukoil直接實施制裁後，中國國有石油公司隨即暫停了俄羅斯海運原油採購——大西洋理事會將此視為次級制裁向中國買家施壓「確實有效」的一次實證。美國國會及行政當局中國委員會2025年11月的報告則直接點明，相關制裁權力的擴展「創造了通過加大執法力度進一步施壓的機會」。。业内人士推荐体育直播作为进阶阅读
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